Eastspring Investments
5 min read
Summary
We believe that US economic growth momentum will likely continue to decelerate, as consumer spending eventually slows on the back of dwindling excess pandemic savings, decelerating wage growth, and tighter lending standards.
Market update
Equities: Equities performed well in May supported by on-going positive economic sentiment and a moderate softening in US inflation. Generally robust corporate earnings reports and central bank interest rate decisions continued to be key drivers of investor sentiment, although no notable rate cuts were announced during the month. US equities posted a 4.8% gain, driven by exceptional corporate earnings; European equities gained 5.0%. Emerging Markets (EM) increased 0.6%, while the Asia Pacific ex Japan markets rose by 1.9% in USD terms. ASEAN markets underperformed compared to the broader Asian region and EM.
Fixed Income: In May, the yield on two-year US Treasury decreased by 15 basis points to 4.89%, while the yield on ten-year US Treasury dropped by 18 basis points to 4.51%. In Singapore, SGD bond yields decreased in step with their US counterparts. Yields on two- and ten-year Singapore Government Securities dropped by 8 basis points and 9 basis points, closing at 3.42% and 3.36%, respectively. Amid a backdrop of generally falling yields, global aggregate bonds rose by 1.3%, US Treasury bonds returned 1.5%, and Singapore bonds (7-10Y) rose by 1.8%. The US high yield bond market returned 1.1%, underperforming its US corporate counterpart (1.9%). The Asian USD bond market returned 1.3%.
Macro overview
Growth: The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) expanded for the fourth consecutive month in May with a reading of 50.9, a 22-month high, suggesting that global manufacturing output growth continues to improve. Despite overall tighter monetary conditions across most advanced economies, global economic activity in 2024 has been stronger than expected, supported primarily by US demand. Looking ahead, we believe that US economic growth momentum will likely continue to decelerate, as consumer spending, a key driver of US growth, eventually slows on the back of dwindling excess pandemic savings, decelerating wage growth, and tighter lending standards, among other factors.
Inflation: Although the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) displayed robust readings during Q1 2024, the back-to-back readings in April and May were below expectations, providing a temporary relief. However, over the last three months, shelter costs have been resilient, with the rents and owners' equivalent rents components both holding steady. While supply-side inflation risks could arise due to geopolitical tensions, leading to higher shipping costs or oil prices, we believe that disinflationary forces will ultimately prevail, especially as the labour market demand moderates over time.
Monetary Policy: At the June 2024 FOMC meeting, the Fed left the Fed Funds target rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%, for the seventh consecutive time. The latest Fed median projection (aka ‘Dot Plot’) now implies a single 25 basis points (bp) rate cut this year, in contrast to three cuts projected in March. Going forward, the Fed will rely on data to guide its approach towards lowering rates.
Please download report for a discussion on key risks.
Singapore by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H)
Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (200001028634/ 531241-U) and Eastspring Al-Wara’ Investments Berhad (200901017585 / 860682-K).
Thailand by Eastspring Asset Management (Thailand) Co., Ltd.
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this document is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please carefully study the related information and/or consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risks. Past performance of and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments companies (excluding joint venture companies) are ultimately wholly owned/indirect subsidiaries of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including joint venture companies) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company Limited, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).
